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As we head into the second half of the year, global markets are showing a blend of optimism and caution. In our latest Monthly Market Updates for Busy People, we unpacked the key highlights shaping the stock market — and more importantly, what you as an investor or trader can do with this information.
Here are the insights you need to know:
The US struck significant tariff deals this month with Japan and the European Union. Japan has committed over $550 billion in investments and broader access to U.S. products, while the EU will be buying $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and defense products.
These trade developments temporarily soothed global tensions, giving markets a reason to rally. But investors should remember: trade policies are still evolving, and the ongoing US-China tech rivalry is far from over.
Google’s recent earnings pointed to growing demand for AI infrastructure, with a jump in capital expenditure from $75 billion to $85 billion. This confidence is echoed in Taiwan’s TSMC, which reported strong AI chip orders.
As a result, semiconductor stocks like Nvidia, AMD, and Micron continued to perform well, but with valuations running high, this might not be the time to chase. Instead, prepare for pullbacks and watch for quality entries.
Based on 5-year seasonality trends, August to October tends to be a weak period for markets, especially September, where only 25% of the time the S&P 500 closed higher than it opened. That doesn’t mean doom and gloom, but it does mean caution.
💡 Our view? Don’t rush to buy at highs. Wait for a healthy pullback and watch for strong support to form. If that happens, there’s still room for a year-end rally.
Yes, the markets are bullish. But they are also stretched. If you don’t have a system to help you decide what to buy, when to enter, and how much to risk, it’s easy to get caught in the hype - or panic at the wrong time.
This is exactly why we teach our students the STPM framework:
While AI continues to dominate headlines, other sectors are starting to show signs of recovery. Retail stocks like Nike and Estée Lauder are bouncing back on stronger data. Brokers and fintech companies may also benefit from deregulation and interest rate changes.
Keep your eyes on macro developments like inflation, interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies. These drive 40% of stock price movement, and learning how to interpret them can give you an edge.
Whether you're a long-term investor or short-term trader, now is the time to get prepared. You don’t need to predict the market, but you do need a systematic plan to respond to it.
Join our FREE 3-hour webinar where we’ll walk you through how to invest and trade in a way that’s systematic, versatile, and safe - especially in volatile markets like now.
👉 Click here to reserve your spot - and start building a better financial future.
The pullback could happen in the next few months. Will you be ready?
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Read MoreThe July 2025 market recap highlights key global trade deals between the US, Japan, and the EU, and strong performance in AI stocks driven by earnings and cloud demand. Seasonality suggests a potential pullback from August to October, advising investors to wait for healthy entry points before a possible year-end rally. The article also points to recovery signs in retail, fintech, and broker sectors, emphasizing the importance of a systematic trading framework like STPM.
The US struck significant tariff deals with Japan, committing over $550 billion in investments and broader access to U.S. products, and with the European Union, for $750 billion worth of U.S. energy and defense products.
Google's recent earnings pointed to growing demand for AI infrastructure, with a jump in capital expenditure from $75 billion to $85 billion, and Taiwan's TSMC reported strong AI chip orders.
Based on 5-year seasonality trends, August to October tends to be a weak period for markets, especially September, where only 25% of the time the S&P 500 closed higher than it opened.
The STPM framework involves S-electing the right stock based on fundamentals and megatrends, T-iming the right entry/exit using technical analysis, P-rotecting your capital with position sizing and stop-loss, and M-ultiplying returns through strategy scaling and compounding.
Retail stocks like Nike and Estée Lauder are bouncing back on stronger data, and brokers and fintech companies may also benefit from deregulation and interest rate changes.