Session date: Tuesday, 29 Aug 2026 | Presenter: Li Chye, Senior Financial Analyst & Coach, Beyond Insights
The next test arrives quickly. Micron reports its quarterly results on Wednesday, 30 September, after the US market closes. Li Chye called it one of the most important earnings reports of the month: a read on whether the memory boom is still intact, and a result that could move the wider AI industry.
If you hold AI-related stocks, or are thinking about it, this is a good week to step back and look at the bigger picture. Here is what the session covered, in the same order Li Chye walked through it: the macro picture first, then industry trends, then company headlines.
Session date: Tuesday, 29 September 2026. Watch the full replay:
The Macro Picture: Why the Fed Raised Rates to 4%
At its latest meeting, the Fed lifted US interest rates to 4%, the first rate hike since 2023. Its latest projections put the median interest rate at 4.1% through 2027. Li Chye’s reading: there may be one more increase in 2027, and no rate cuts in 2026.
Inflation is the reason
The Fed tracks a measure called PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), which shows how fast prices are rising for US consumers. PCE inflation is now at 3.7%. Core PCE, which leaves out the more volatile food and energy prices, is at 3.3%. Both are well above where the Fed wants them.
The war is the root cause
Li Chye traced the inflation back to one source, the US-Iran war, which began in late February. The chain runs like this:
- The war closed the Strait of Hormuz, and a large share of shipping could not get through.
- Oil prices spiked, reaching a high of around $95.
- Higher oil pushed up transport costs, which pushed up food prices.
- Higher energy and food prices kept US inflation elevated.
- With inflation high, the Fed raised rates.
More recently, the US rejected Iran’s plan to reopen the Strait, and oil prices started climbing again.
Bond yields are flashing a warning
The same pressures have pushed US government bond yields sharply higher. The 10-year yield has reached 5.23% and the 30-year yield 5.53%. For many years, yields stayed below 4%. Li Chye pointed to three drivers: a strong US economy, inflation that is not easing, and heavy selling in the US bond market.
His overall view on the macro side was clear. There are warning signs, and whether you are investing or actively trading, this is a time to be more cautious.
Industry Trends: AI Keeps Spending, Despite the Slowdown Debate
Macro conditions are not the whole story. Even when the macro backdrop turns cautious, some industries keep doing well because they benefit from heavy investment or long-term trends. AI is the clearest example right now, though the news flow is mixed.
The AI slowdown debate
The CEOs of Anthropic and OpenAI recently called for AI development to slow down, citing hacking incidents and other incidents in their labs. Nvidia’s Jensen Huang disagreed. His view was that safety should be fixed through engineering and stronger safety programs, not by slowing down.
Nvidia then released open-source AI safety software that any AI developer can use. The market’s first reaction was panic selling, followed by a quick recovery, especially in AI infrastructure stocks. The US administration also rejected any slowdown in AI.
Li Chye’s point: this debate can move the market again. That is why proper risk management matters, including stop losses and managing risk across your whole portfolio.
AI spending remains huge
Anthropic’s filing showed revenue up 12 times to $4.6 billion, and plans to invest $518 billion in cloud and computing. It is still not profitable, but the scale of spending is clear.
Memory stocks have led the recent rally, although they pulled back the day before the session. Intel’s CEO has warned that memory prices could rise a further five to seven times because of the shortage.
AI agents change what the hardware needs
Meta’s new AI agent went to the top of the app store. As more people use AI agents, analysts expect demand for CPUs (the general-purpose processors in every computer) and memory to rise, because agents need them to carry out tasks. We come back to this under opportunities.
China’s chip equipment rule
China now requires its chip fabrication plants to use 50% locally made equipment. US equipment makers such as Applied Materials and Lam Research have faced selling pressure and are losing share in China. China has made progress in processes such as etching and cleaning, though it still lags in lithography.
Rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure
With high interest rates, high bond yields and high inflation, industries that are sensitive to borrowing costs have faced selling. Li Chye named homebuilders, airlines, cruise lines and retail. Companies carrying high debt or high leverage need extra care.
Company Headlines From the Past Month
- Oracle: Its latest earnings showed a record backlog of $664 billion, more evidence that AI infrastructure spending is still high. Li Chye noted that Oracle has funded much of this with debt.
- SK Hynix: The Korean memory maker is moving some of its manufacturing to the US. With a serious shortage of memory capacity, the fastest way to add supply is to take over capacity from existing factories.
- Meta: Its AI agent topped the app store, feeding the view that more agents will need more CPUs and memory.
- Micron: Reports on 30 September, after the US market closes. Li Chye called this the most important earnings report of the month. For those who know how to read company results, he suggested looking closely at Micron’s forward guidance as well as the headline numbers.
How Major Markets Compare Over 10 Years
Always start with the bigger picture. Here is how four markets compare over the past 10 years.
| Market | 10-year picture | What is driving it now |
|---|---|---|
| US (Nasdaq 100, S&P 500) | The most consistent performer of the four; near all-time highs when the slides were prepared on 25 September | Strong earnings from banks and technology companies, a resilient economy, and multinationals building factories in the US |
| China | About 22% over 10 years, or around 2.2% a year | Property slowdown since 2021 to 2022, weak retail sales, low inflation and falling investment; exports are improving |
| Hong Kong | Slightly better than mainland China, and holding above support | Money flowing in from mainland China, and an IPO boom as Chinese semiconductor and AI companies list |
| Malaysia (FBM KLCI) | Largely flat | Political uncertainty ahead of a possible election next year; data centre-linked construction, utilities and solar companies have rallied |
In the US, Li Chye flagged two things to watch. First, the market is near all-time high resistance, so caution is warranted. Second, capital spending by the largest cloud companies, such as Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon. If that spending slows, AI-related stocks could slow with it.
In Malaysia, September brought a cut to rates under the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme, along with new rules and deadlines, and several solar and renewable energy companies rallied. For China, Hong Kong and Malaysia, Li Chye’s view was that opportunities exist, but they suit more experienced investors and traders.
He also asked the audience a simple question: which market gives you the most global brand names? The answer was the US, home to companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Google and Amazon, many of which are still growing strongly.
USD 7.9 Trillion Waiting on the Sidelines
There is a record USD 7.9 trillion sitting in US money market funds. With US interest rates at 4%, investors can earn close to that without taking stock market risk.
That cash may eventually rotate into stocks, bonds or other assets, but the timing is unknown. Li Chye suggested thinking like the Fed: watch inflation, watch unemployment, and ask what the Fed is likely to do next. Those answers shape where the money moves.
Risks to Watch
Here are the four risks to watch for.
1. Geopolitical tension. US-Iran negotiations keep swinging between rejected proposals and talk of possible deals. That has made markets choppier, with oil spiking from time to time. The escalation in the Ukraine-Russia war has also pushed up diesel prices.
2. The US midterm elections in November. The outcome could affect some of the current administration’s policies, and markets may turn volatile beforehand. In the previous session, Li Chye had mentioned the possibility of a September dip ahead of the election. Instead, markets moved the other way. His lesson: markets are dynamic, so what matters most is a systematic approach with proper risk management and clear entry and exit rules.
3. Two kinds of inflation. The first is oil-driven: higher oil lifts transport, fertilizer and food prices. The second is tech inflation: the AI boom has created shortages of memory, PC components and GPUs, which is pushing up the prices of laptops and smartphones. Both could keep inflation sticky.
4. AI agent disruption. Some banks, insurers, online travel sites and gym companies have seen selling. The market’s view is that AI agents could help consumers shop around for better prices, move savings to higher-paying accounts and cancel unused subscriptions, which would mean less business for these providers.
Opportunities to watch
The AI super cycle continues
In Li Chye’s view, we are still in an AI super cycle that could last until 2030, though there may be setbacks and pullbacks along the way. He sees continued demand across several parts of the supply chain:
- Memory: Capacity is still not enough, so the shortage is likely to continue.
- CPUs: In the past, AI systems used about one CPU for every eight GPUs. With AI agents, some forecasts suggest that ratio could move towards one to one. By Li Chye’s study, each agent needs around two CPU cores, so demand scales quickly with the number of users.
- GPUs: Still essential for training AI models and for inference, which is the work an AI model does when it answers a request. As agents start talking to each other, inference demand could rise further.
- Custom chips and connectivity: More cloud companies are designing their own chips for inference, and agents that book travel or shop for you need fast, reliable connections.
Onshoring and sovereign AI
Factories are returning to the US, and many countries are offering incentives for semiconductor plants. Governments increasingly see AI as a technology that could reshape world power, and they want their citizens’ data hosted at home. This is called sovereign AI. Building it takes two scarce resources: power and chips. Korea, India, Japan and China are all funding new chip plants, which supports demand for chip-making equipment.
Brokers
A recent ruling by the US Securities and Exchange Commission has benefited brokers that offer tokenized stocks, digital tokens that track the price of a listed share. Li Chye named Robinhood as one example. Brokers also earn interest on the margin they lend to clients, which helps them in a high-rate environment.
The next megatrends
Li Chye sees AI agents as just the start. Physical AI, meaning robotics and humanoid robots, is next in line. Space technology is another, with the focus on the wider industry and supply chain rather than any single company. He also pointed to Terafab, Elon Musk’s concept to address the chip shortage, and the ecosystem around it.
Stocks that were over-penalised
Some software, cybersecurity and cloud companies are starting to recover. The largest cloud providers are now reporting record cloud revenue, showing they are finally earning a return on their heavy investment.
As Li Chye put it, there are plenty of opportunities in the market. The part that matters is having a proper, rule-based system and proper risk management before you act on any of them.
Want to Learn How to Read These Signals Yourself?
The frameworks Li Chye uses in these sessions – reading Fed policy shifts, identifying structural industry cycles, managing risk across volatile macro conditions – are what we teach at Beyond Insights.
Our free 3-hour webinar walks through a systematic approach to global investing and trading, built around the S.V.S. framework: Systematic, Versatile, and Safe.
If you are navigating this market and want a clearer way to think about it, register for the next free webinar below.
Join now!
GLOBAL INVESTING & TRADING MADE SIMPLE
A seminar that will transform the way you invest or trade in the stock market.
All content in this article is based on publicly available data and is intended for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Because US inflation remains high. PCE inflation is at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.3%, driven mainly by higher oil and food prices linked to the US-Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Will the Fed cut interest rates in 2026?
Based on the Fed’s latest projections, with a median rate of 4.1% through 2027, Li Chye does not expect rate cuts in 2026. There may be one more increase in 2027.
Why are US bond yields above 5%?
A strong US economy, sticky inflation and selling in the US bond market have pushed the 10-year yield to 5.23% and the 30-year yield to 5.53%. Li Chye treats a 10-year yield above 4% as a warning sign.
Is the AI boom slowing down?
Not on the spending side. Anthropic plans to invest $518 billion in cloud and computing, and Oracle reported a record $664 billion backlog. The debate over slowing AI development could still cause volatility.
Why do AI agents matter for chip stocks?
AI agents need CPUs and memory to carry out tasks. Some forecasts suggest the CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI systems could move from one to eight towards one to one, which would lift CPU demand.
Which stock market has been the most consistent over 10 years?
Of the four markets compared in the session, the US has been the most consistent performer. China, Hong Kong and Malaysia have moved largely sideways over the same period.