Two big catalysts are still ahead of us as this recap goes live: Nvidia reports its second quarter earnings after today's market close, and this Friday, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first major speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting. Both were flagged during today's Monthly Market Update for Busy People as events investors are pausing to watch before making their next move, so if you are holding AI or semiconductor names, these two dates are worth keeping on your radar this week.
At today's session, Li Chye, Financial Analyst and Coach at Beyond Insights, walked through what is actually driving the market right now using the 40-30-30 lens: macro conditions, industry trends, and company fundamentals. Here is the recap for those who missed it, or want the key points in writing.
The US Treasury has been stepping in to buy back long-term bonds until November, an effort to keep bond yields from climbing and pushing up government borrowing costs. The relief has not held for long though. Yields have already rebounded, and 5.4% is the level worth watching if they spike again.
The buyback has weakened the US dollar to a three-month low, and that has triggered a rotation into other assets. Gold has reversed into an uptrend, silver has rallied, and bitcoin has seen a strong rebound, helped along by both the weaker dollar and ongoing discussion around the Clarity Act.
On rates, September rate hike odds have dropped, and most investors now expect the Fed to hold steady at the September FOMC meeting, in line with cooling inflation and producer price data. That is not a certainty though, and much may depend on what Kevin Warsh signals at Jackson Hole this Friday.
At the same time, consumer spending is showing signs of slowing. The latest retail sales data came in down 6%, and consumer confidence sits at 51. Combined with the ongoing US-Iran conflict and Ukraine-Russia war, plus tariff escalation (the 10 to 12.5% tariff on 60 trading partners that took effect July 24, and the collapse of US-Canada tariff talks resulting in a 50% tariff on Canadian goods), the macro backdrop remains mixed and uncertain.
Healthcare and biotech ETFs hit record highs this month, largely on the back of Moderna's cancer vaccine clearing its final trial, a stock that jumped 177% on the news. The next catalyst for the wider healthcare and biotech sector will be the FDA filing dates for similar mRNA cancer vaccine candidates from other companies.
In semiconductors, a notable development was Google's agreement to buy up to USD 12.2 billion in custom AI chips from Marvell, a segment previously dominated by Broadcom as Google's key supplier. The news triggered a rally in Marvell and sell-offs in both Broadcom and AMD. Nvidia may also benefit here, given its past investment in Marvell and their joint work on NVLink Fusion technology, which lets custom chips talk directly to Nvidia's GPU ecosystem.
Memory stocks have also faced selling pressure following the sell-off in the Korean market, even as companies like Samsung post record dividend payouts, a case of selling on good news. The view shared in the session was that this is a short-term rotation rather than a change in the long-term picture: fundamentals across the AI and semiconductor supply chain, from data centers to sovereign AI buildouts, remain intact.
Looking at 10-year performance, the Nasdaq 100 has averaged over 50% annually, powered by the concentration of global tech brand names it holds. The S&P 500 has recently broken new highs too, a sign of funds rotating out of semiconductors and into other sectors.
China's market remains in a long sideways pattern, weighed down by a property slowdown now in its fourth year and consumers favouring saving over spending. Hong Kong has fared somewhat better, benefiting from mainland southbound money and a wave of mainland tech and semiconductor listings. Malaysia's FBM KLCI has also been range bound, tied closely to political stability, though pockets of strength are showing up in data center, power infrastructure, construction, and semiconductor supply chain names.
Key risks flagged in the session: ongoing geopolitical tension (US-Iran, Ukraine-Russia, and new US sanctions on Iran), tariff escalation, sticky inflation from both oil prices and tariffs, early signs of tech inflation from rising memory costs, softening consumer spending, and short-term profit taking in semiconductors after a multi-year rally.
Opportunities flagged in the session: the AI super cycle remains intact over a three- to five-year horizon, supported by agentic AI demand for chips, memory, and networking. Onshoring and sovereign AI buildouts (US, Malaysia, China, and others building their own data center capacity) are also long-term tailwinds. For shorter term traders, Li Chye pointed to healthcare breakouts, gold, silver, and select oversold software, consumer staple, and discretionary names with strong fundamentals as areas showing trend reversal.
This question came up during the live Q&A, and it's one worth answering directly.
Short answer: not really, at least not yet. Li Chye explained that the current volatility is coming more from the macro side, specifically ongoing war developments and the continuation of the semiconductor sell-off out of Korea. After the US-Iran ceasefire, the S&P 500 rallied to an all time high, and the Nasdaq has been in trend recovery, holding above key support.
Rather than the midterms, Li Chye pointed to investors pausing ahead of two concrete events: Nvidia's earnings after today's close, and Friday's Jackson Hole speech, where markets are looking for clues on where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stands on rates and the bond yield cap policy.
Looking further out, though, he did flag something worth watching. As markets move into September, historical data shows it tends to be a slower, more underperforming month, sometimes referred to as the "September dip." Coupled with the upcoming midterm election in November, that combination could add uncertainty and open the door to a pullback in September or October.
Li Chye's view: a pullback like that could also be an opportunity, similar to past dips around the US-Iran war and tariff news, provided you know how to manage risk and identify the companies and industries positioned to benefit.
Will the Fed raise interest rates in September? Based on the latest inflation and producer price data, most investors now expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the September FOMC meeting, though this depends on the actual meeting outcome and any signals from Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech this Friday.
Why did Broadcom and AMD sell off recently? Largely due to Google's USD 12.2 billion custom chip deal with Marvell, which invited a rotation of investor attention and dollars away from Broadcom, previously Google's main custom chip supplier, and away from AMD as the number two name in the GPU segment.
Is a market pullback coming in September or October? Nobody can say for certain. Historically, September tends to be a weaker month for markets, and with the midterm election approaching in November, there could be added uncertainty. Li Chye's guidance was to manage risk properly through this period rather than predict the exact timing of a dip.
What is a money market fund, and why does it matter right now? It works similarly to a fixed deposit. When funds are sitting in cash, they are often parked in money market funds to earn interest while staying liquid. With over USD 7.9 trillion currently parked this way and US rates still relatively high globally, this is a large pool of capital that could rotate into stocks, bonds, or commodities depending on how the Fed and inflation data move from here.n mid-August. That window will be one of the most important variables shaping global markets in the second half of the year.
The frameworks Li Chye uses in these sessions – reading Fed policy shifts, identifying structural industry cycles, managing risk across volatile macro conditions – are what we teach at Beyond Insights.
Our free 3-hour webinar walks through a systematic approach to global investing and trading, built around the S.V.S. framework: Systematic, Versatile, and Safe.
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All content in this article is based on publicly available data and is intended for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
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